Here we go again...

It's Only Rock and Roll, But We Like It.  That's the name of the upcoming Apple event.

It's no surprise that Apple, Inc. has yearly iPod updates around this time of year.  This year, that event will be held September 9.  The usual tornado of rumors have been swirling around, and the 09-09-09 date has rekindled old rumors.

I'm just like you.  I don't have any special info, and read the same blogs and websites you do.  I'm also stuck on a Las Vegas to New York flight with a fully charged MacBook Pro and 5 hours to kill, so this post may ramble for a bit.  Sorry, and you're welcome.

Apple, Apple, 09-09-09 and The Beatles

The Beatles have long been holding out on digital distribution of their music.  Some say it's because of an old law suit between Apple Computer and Apple Music.  See, back in the day, Apple Music sued Apple computer over the name, and Apple Computer said "Don't worry, guys, we're not even in the music business, we build computers!" and Apple Music said "OK, fine.  But we're watching you."
Fast forward to today, and Apple is the largest music distributor in the world, besting everyone in the digital realm, and just about everyone in the music biz in general.  Apple Music tried again to stop Apple Computer from being in the music distribution business, but Apple Computer (now Apple, Inc.) is just too damn big.  Did I mention that Apple Music were the original distributors of the Beatles?
Others say it's because Paul McCartney, who bought some of the rights of the Beatles catalog from Michael Jackson a few years back, is holding out for legal reasons.  ("Legal" in this case meaning he doesn't want his ex-wife to get any of the money.)
Whatever the reason, there is no legal way to download Beatles music.  There is a rumor that that is changing.  See, the last few years Apple has been doing iPod events on Tuesdays.  This year, it's on a Wednesday.  09-09-09 is also when the Beatles remastered complete CD catalog is being released.  Also, Harmonix is releasing a Beatles version of it's Rock Band franchise with custom instruments and tons of Beatles songs.  Will iTunes finally get the Beatles on this date, as well?
I think yes.  Apple has been working on a distribution scheme called "Cocktail" that includes not only music, but tons of other goodies.  Liner notes, digital album covers, lyrics, music and concert footage, and more can be included in a Cocktail file.  Also, Cocktail albums can be sold at higher quality, maybe even using lossless compression.  This is perfect for Beatles music.  True Beatles fans like all this stuff.  They want to listen to whole albums, and are offended by single-song downloads that would ruin the "album experience"  Of course, true Beatles fans already have the CDs and have already ripped them into iTunes, so will they buy?  Who knows…  What I do know is if this does happen, it will allow the Beatles to sell in stores and through digital downloads.  If we do get a "Beatles Cocktail," it won't cannibalize CD sales, because these are different markets.

iPods with Cameras

It's going to happen, I'm pretty sure.  There have been a couple of leaked pictures and videos, and even cases that have little holes for cameras.   These pictures show iPod touches and iPod Nanos with cameras.
This is certainly credible.  The Nano is the best selling iPod, and adding a cell-phone style camera to it would be pretty easy, but it may  create some issues.  Think of all the businesses, gyms, and public events that don't allow cameras.  If my gym bans cameras in the locker room, it's effectively banning my iPod.  And the size of the Nano and click-wheel interface make it a little cumbersome to use.  But it'll happen.
On the other hand, adding a camera and mic to the iPod touch makes sense.
Most pundits and even Apple refer to the iPod touch as "the iPhone without the phone."  It's no secret that (at least in the U.S.) AT&T is the least popular feature of the iPhone.  Imagine an iPod touch with the same camera as the iPhone 3GS, and a mic.  You now have a true iPhone without the phone.  You can install Skype on a touch, and never use your cell phone at home.  You can take video and photos.  You can do anything the iPhone 3GS does without paying AT&T one red cent.
Here's my prediction:  iPod nanos with older style fixed focus 2MP cameras in 16/32 GB capacities at current price points.  They will sell a no-camera 8GB iPod nano for $99.  The iPod touch will be bumped to 16/32/64GB capacities with iPhone 3GS style cameras with autofocus and video.  I can also see the iPod touch camera being bumped to 5MP, to set it apart from the iPhone.  Again, these will be at the current price points.

The "Other" iPods

Remember the iPod Classic?  That large capacity hard drive based click-wheel iPod that everyone has really forgotten about?  I think it's going away.  It's nice to have all your music all the time, but that market is shrinking.  People are getting used to syncing and swapping music and content on and off their devices.  There are three options for the Classic:  Kill It, Ignore it, or transition to a solid state drive.  I pick Kill It.
Also on the chopping block is the current Shuffle.  It's too expensive, and just plain weird.  It's especially expensive if you buy my $99 Nano prediction.  It has NO buttons.  None.  And no one is buying it.  People are still buying the second generation Shuffle and ignoring the new one.  I think it will quietly go the way of the hockey-puck mouse and fade into the background without fanfare.  If you're going to have an iPod with no buttons and need proprietary headphones, why don't you just put the memory chip in the headphones and lose the iPod?  The new Shuffle will not even be an iPod.  It will be a pair of headphone earbuds with a small remote dangling on the wire that connects them.

iTunes 9

iTunes needs updating.  It's a mess.
iTunes started as a playlist manager for your music.  Mostly to sell iPods.  It worked for years, but not anymore.  Now there is music, movies, podcasts, TV shows, and Apps.  iTunes is confusing and just doesn't make sense to new users.  Those of us who've been on iTunes from the beginning are fine.  A little feature here and there is easy to learn.  A new user looking at iTunes now might as well go out and try to learn French by watching old Peter Sellers movies.
Rumors are circulating about Blu-Ray support, social integration, and more control over your iDevice from the desktop.  Making changes to your iDevice would be Heaven.  I have over 100 apps on my iPhone, and can't find a damn thing without using the Search page.  Adding home screens and arranging Apps on the desktop would make my a very happy guy.
Social media interaction could be fun as well.  I use Boxee a lot, and like to see what friends have watched and listened to.  In Boxee, it's unobtrusive.  Pick the regular menu or the social menu.  Watch your own stuff, and the social page is automatically updated.  It doesn't flood Twitter and Facebook with useless updates.  It just keeps a nice grid of things that friends have done in the app, and if I want to look, I can.  If I don't, I can ignore the fact that my best friend just watched "The Proposal".  Twice.
There's also the whole Blu-Ray thing.  Steve Jobs has described Blu-Ray as "a bag of hurt", but that was based on old licensing restrictions that are no longer an issue.  And this will pave the way for iMacs to have slot-loading Blu-Ray drives in the next hardware update in January.
Here I go with that fortune telling again…  iTunes 9 will add Blu-Ray playback support, and the DVD app in OS X will disappear.  On Windows, iTunes will be the default DVD player.  Now, all your DVD playback will be from within iTunes.  Why?  So iTunes can monitor it and create your Boxee-style social playlists cataloging every movie you watch, song or podcast you listen to, and TV show you download.  It will use your friend lists to create new Genius playlists based on what you and your friends enjoy.  iPhone and iPod touch users with a MobileMe subscription will be able to stream their home iTunes from anywhere.  App pages can be organized on the desktop and transferred to the iPhone.  I'd like to see contacts and calendars moved back to iSync, and out of iTunes, but that's a long shot.

The Fabled iPad

Every year since the death of the Newton, there is the tablet rumor.  It's like Sasquatch and the Loch Ness Monster.  Everyone knows about it, but no one ever sees it.
Apple has said it will not make a netbook.  It just won't.  Apple has a way of saying they will not build something, then come out with something that is that something but just different enough.  They weren't working on a cell phone, then the iPhone came out.  It's not a cell phone, it's a revolutionary handheld device with a cell phone in there somewhere.  Now, they're not working on a netbook, they are building a revolutionary lightweight small-form-factor computer.  And it will be glorious.
Honestly, I think it's coming.  The question is when?  It would kinda make sense to do it now, for the back-to-school crowd.  But it also makes sense to wait until January when they traditionally do big hardware announcements.   Whenever it happens, it will happen

Think of the bottom half of a 13" Unibody MacBook Pro.  Now take the screen and plop it down on top, where the keyboard and trackpad old normally go.  Now, shrink it to a 10-12 inch diagonal screen.  That's the iPad, in my view.  It will lack an optical drive.  It will have a couple USB ports, audio in/out, an SD slot, and use the MagSafe connector.  It will have a non-removable battery and a multi-touch glass screen like the iPhone.

I think it will run a hybrid OS X install.  iPhone and Snow Leopard are both OS X based, and the iPad will take some of both.  Snow Leopard introduced a new on-screen keyboard that can be stretched to full-width.  It's a step towards touch-based input.  All those multi-touch track pad gestures?  They'll work on a screen, too.  Apple has been moving towards this for a while.  It's now time to put it all together and lose the keyboard.

Why the "hybrid" part?  for iPhone apps, silly!  Imagine running 3 or 4 or more iPhone apps simultaneously on the screen.  iPhone apps are already the best selling apps for any mobile platform.  over 1.5 billion downloads, 60,000 apps available, and more coming every day.  People say it will be tough to scale iPhone apps to a bigger screen, but why scale at all?  Why not run the app at native resolution in a floating widget on your screen?  The only change would be when you call up the keyboard, the full width keyboard pops up instead of an iPhone sized keyboard.  And that API call is built into the OS, not the app, so developers don't need to change a thing.

Of course, since it's a hybrid operating system, you can also run all the regular Mac apps.  You'll get iMovie, iPhoto, Garage Band, and iTunes.  To fit all this, the iPad will run off a 250 GB hard drive.  You'll get to use your FileMaker and office suite.  Did you notice that the last iMovie revision's method for trimming video clips is exactly the way you trim clips on your iPhone?  Did you notice that the iPhone-style pinch and zoom and swipes work in iPhoto now?  Did you see that the new Quicktime X looks and works exactly like the video player in your iPod touch and iPhone? More of those cross-platform features that make it easier to use everything.  You can use the same gestures on your phone and computer.  Genius.  Imagine an iPad on a music stand running Garage Band.  That's a recording studio in a box the size of the September issue of Cosmo.  Oh, by the way, it will also have a dual-band GSM/CDMA 3G chip in it, and be sold unlocked.

Unfortunately, it will be about $800 for this thing.  I'll buy one, but will it be the next Big Thing, or the next Apple TV?

…and speaking of Apple TV…

Apple TV is an iPod.  It syncs with iTunes, and is sold in the iPod section of the Apple Store.  It will get a big update that integrates all the social features of iTunes 9, and finally makes use of that USB port to recognize external storage.  It'l have a Blu-Ray drive and a built in iPod dock that syncs over the network.  It will also make you delicious waffles every Wednesday morning.

Wild speculation and wishing…

What do I really want?  I want every iPod to have WiFi.  Even the Nano.
I want it to sync music and podcasts whenever I'm in my house on the network.
I want Apple to implement something like the Zune where you can share a limited-play copy of a song to another iPod using wireless.  Imagine sending a friend a song you love while you are at the bar, then he can play it 3 times or keep in 24 hours.  Then, it expires, and he has to buy it.  Luckily, he has WiFi and an iTunes account!  He can just select "Buy Now" and he gets a song and Apple gets 99 cents.  But, for the love of God, don't call it "Squirting".
I want every Mac and Macbook to have a pop-out iPod dock.  At least a dock connector that flips out of the side like the MacBook Air's USB port.
I want a better App store.  I don't shop for Apps like I shop for music.  A screenshot and description is not enough.  It wouldn't be that hard to build a Java based iPhone simulator into iTunes so you can try any App live inside iTunes.  Swipe around with your mouse/trackpad.  See all the features and every screen.  Or, allow developers to offer a limited-time fully functional demo.  Download the real app file, and it works for 48 hours.  If you like it, activate it and your account is charged.  If you don't, POOF, it's gone.

If you're keeping score…

•    Beatles music on iTunes, but only as full albums using new Cocktail technology
•    iPod Nano with camera and 16/32 GB capacities at $149/199 price points.
•    iPod Nano with no camera and 8GB capacity for $99
•    iPod touches with autofocus video capable cameras at 16/32/64GB capacities at $299/399/499 price points
•    itunes 9 with Blu-Ray (and the death of OS X DVD player app), social integration, and MobileMe music streaming
•    An iPad with hybrid operating system, no optical drive, and a hard-drive based system.
•    Apple TV updates with external storage and social media integration

How will I do?  We'll find out soon!

Comments

[jessica]

you obviously have far too much time on your hands....please return immediately to your brooklyn home and jaime and i will pick you up at 7:30 am tomorrow as we are currently renovating a basement and are in dire need of a jimmy little.

thank you for your prompt action in this matter.

:) xoxoxoxo miss you!